I have no hesitation in recommending the
report from Residential Analysts which explains why the ‘housing crisis’ should
be seen as many different problems affecting all parts of the country in
different ways.
The question does arise as to why local
authorities have bought into the relatively crude analysis on which the
Strategic Housing Market assessments have been prepared and why the DHCLG has
not sought to emphasise the need for local responses to housing needs, based on
the figures reproduced in the RA report?
One interesting figure is the 9million
‘spare’ bedrooms. This is the equivalent of about 4.5million two bedroomed
dwellings. Taking the Government
estimate of demand at 300,000 new dwellings per year (and average household
size of about 2.6), there is potential for about 15 years supply without any new
building. It would be seriously
delusional to expect all this space to be magically available in the places (ie
where there are jobs) and in the form that could be used ( eg as rented rooms
or conversions into flats). However, the
carbon cost of new building (50% being embodied at substantial completion and
before occupation), the prevalence of fuel poverty, and the need for the
housing sector to be net carbon zero by about 2030 points to residential sub-divisions
(including custom-splitting) as a serious if not the main contender.
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